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	<title>vantagepoint.com.sg &#187; economic downturn</title>
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		<title>Wipe Out, Bail Out &#8211; Where&#8217;s The Way Out?</title>
		<link>http://vantagepoint.com.sg/2009/03/wipe-out-bail-out-wheres-the-way-out/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2009 21:34:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>VP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Interviews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leadership]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic downturn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[leadership wisdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://vantagepoint.com.sg/?p=180</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the face of extreme fear and panic, when the foundation that you have depended upon crumbles and God seems absent, how do you exercise faith? Mr Ngiam Tong Dow, Former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Singapore, and Dr Stephen Riady, President of The Lippo Group, share their views.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span class="articleImage"><img src="http://116.12.200.5/EVP/WipeOut580.jpg" border="0" alt="Wipe Out, Bail Out - Where's the Way Out? "></span></p>
<p class="text">
<span class="headblue">Share with us how you came to know God.</span></p>
<p><strong>Ngiam Tong Dow (N)</strong>: My father died when I was 10. My mother was left to raise five of us children single-handedly. I was the eldest and I had just entered primary one of the English medium school. By the grace of God, our neighbors were an Indian Christian family, the Pauls. The eldest daughter taught me to read, speak, and write English. Mrs Paul persuaded me to stay in school and sit for the university entrance exam. If they had not been my neighbors, my life would have been totally different. They gave me an invaluable start in life. </p>
<p>Thirty years passed before I accepted Christ. I was torn between love for my dead parents whose memory I cherished, and love for the Lord. As the eldest son of a traditional Chinese family, it was my duty to attend to the family altar. At dawn each day, I would light up three joss sticks and pray to my parents. My wife, Janet, born in a Christian family bore patiently the burden of this ritual of her husband. She knew that one day the Lord would speak to me. That day was Maundy Thursday, 1984, in the candlelight of the night service, I saw my son&#8217;s face glowing with faith. The thought flashed across my mind: Believe and you shall see. All at once the scales fell from my mind&#8217;s eyes. I could see the hand of the Lord at each stage of my life. </p>
<p><strong>Stephen Riady (R)</strong>: My whole family converted to Christianity between the 1980s and 1990s. I was the last one to convert in 1992. Since my graduation from university, my life had been quite smooth. My family members kept persuading me to convert. It was very difficult for me. Those days I lived in Hong Kong while my parents lived in Jakarta. They&#8217;d come to visit me monthly. My mother repeatedly asked me to go to church or to meet with some Christian friends or pastors. I obeyed but remained unconvinced. I thought that my mother was still a bit superstitious. Every time she heard that I made good money by selling buildings, she did not thank or praise me. Instead, she would say that &#8220;it is not you but God giving to you.&#8221; That was hard for me to accept for many years. My father wanted me to become a Christian so that I could balance the money and the influence that I have. </p>
<p>After I accepted Christ, I gradually experienced change. I&#8217;ve been a Christian for 16 years and I can testify that I lead a more balanced life between two laws. One is business law and the other is spiritual law. The business law means profit center &ndash; making money, which is for selfish reasons. My faith, which is in the spiritual law, is Christ centered where you find the purpose of life is to know God and to grow in Christ and to depend and trust Him. This is a good balance which I gradually learned. </p>
<p><span class="headblue">What are your thoughts on the current global financial crisis?</span></p>
<p><strong>N</strong>: The present financial crisis is man-made. As an economist, I&#8217;ll describe it this way: this whole thing began because there was too much liquidity and the bankers then became careless and loaned out a lot of money. They found a way of passing the risk to the people. Since it is a man-made problem, man has to unravel it. Now all the government has to do is to guarantee bank deposits and allow the economic system to make its way out of the recession. So I&#8217;m quite unsure about all these bailouts of banks. The real economy may slow down for a while. And as economists, we all know that when interest rates fall, and wages fall, the rate of return on capital would be higher. So entrepreneurs will go back and invest and re-appropriate. And the whole cycle will start over again. </p>
<p>If you read the Keynesian theory of employment, it is very simple. Keynes told the governments of his day, &#8220;Don&#8217;t be ashamed to run a little budget to facilitate.&#8221; So by putting in a little liquidity, the idling economic machinery could be re-started.</p>
<p><strong>R</strong>: I think as Christians, we should know what the purpose of life is. The Bible tells us that the purpose of life is to know Christ and to grow in Him. So our purpose here is not just to make money. We want to glorify Him. And the way to do this is through our daily life, our experiences in family, business, and so on. Life is about transformation and we have to change. And people fear change. Nowadays, we talk about the global financial crisis. But we also have other uncertainties in life too. There is a lot of fear. I think God allowed this so that we can be transformed through all these crisis experiences. </p>
<p>It is good as Christians when we see all these crises and difficulties that we learn to adapt to change. My father taught me this Chinese saying that &#8220;whatever you take up, you must also be prepared to let go.&#8221; In the book of Philippians, Paul says he has learned a secret &ndash; he knows how to abound and to abase.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><span class="headblue">In the current situation, what are the factors that create frenzy, panic, and fear?</span></p>
<p><strong>N</strong>: To quote Alan Greenspan, it is the &#8220;market&#8217;s irrational exuberance.&#8221; It is irrational fear. However, I have faith in the laws of economics. The wheels of the economic laws might grind slowly but they grind inexorably. So you must let the whole thing work itself out. If you panic and sell your shares, you are already realizing a loss but the real economy still exists. The hotels, airports, and hospitals will still operate and farmers will still farm. So what has changed is monetary value. The real economy will start all over again. But what really surprised me this time as an economist is that banks are refusing to lend to each other. That is very irrational. If the banks do not trust each other, how can we trust the banks? I think nevertheless that the real economy, after the fever has been purged, will start humming again. That is my conviction as an economist. </p>
<p><strong>R</strong>: What people fear most is losing money. I had that fear of becoming poor in the 1998 Asian financial crisis. At that time, we had a currency collapse and many banks collapsed on top of stock markets. We owned a bank in Indonesia at that time, and every week we heard of other banks collapsing. We were wondering when ours would collapse as people totally had no trust in the banking system. However, if we had faith in our bank, we should then fully support it. That was when we withdrew all our cash from other banks to be put into our bank. My father said we should go this way. To him, trust is more important. That was a very big struggle. What if after we had put all our money in our bank, it would still collapse and all our businesses would be ruined? That was my experience and my biggest fear at that time. What would happen if we became poor and so on? My fear at that time was more severe than what we are experiencing now. But in a way I have gained experience. Some Christians say that these crises are created by God and others say by the enemy. I realize we cannot blame God or the enemy. We have to blame ourselves. It is the fallen human nature &ndash; without God, we will make wrong decisions. There is too much greed and over confidence. That&#8217;s why so many people make wrong decisions and create so many kinds of crises. We must learn to be responsible. </p>
<p> <br />
<span class="headblue">Where does faith come in during this financial crisis?</span></p>
<p><strong>N</strong>: Let me begin by going back to 1961, when Singapore just had self-government and we had to be responsible for ourselves. During that time, the unemployment rate was over 10%. The government decided to do something about it. We chose a straight and narrow road of creating employment &ndash; anything that could give us a job. If you choose the straight and narrow path to solve the problem, more than likely God will be with you. But if you choose the easy option &ndash; the low road, I think it will lead you to a lot of grief. That is my Christian conviction. </p>
<p><strong>R</strong>: Well, when the crisis happened, it forced me to pray more. I turned to God and became closer to Him. And faith really comes by reading the Word and of course praying. So I think it is good that we have more time for God. In the end, we learn from experience. On top of experience, we spend more time with God and draw closer to Him. </p>
<p>There is a difference between Christians and non-Christians. We all suffer and face the same financial crisis. The difference is that non-Christians suffer both outwardly and inwardly. For Christians, we may suffer outwardly but inwardly we can still have joy and peace. That is the difference. God&#8217;s Word promises that the Heavenly Father will look after His children. Non-Christians don&#8217;t have such promises to turn to. </p>
<p> <br />
<span class="headblue">How do you distinguish between faith and presumption? </span></p>
<p><strong>R</strong>: There is a difference between testing and temptation. Temptation is when we want to find an easy way and later we will have problems. Testing is different. It is from God and usually it comes in the form of difficult times, hard work, and so on. That is why when we face a problem or crisis, testing and temptation come at the same time. It has to do with our mindset. We keep thinking: can we find an easy way? What is the quickest way to solve something? Very often, the quick way is not the right way. It may look good at first but it will give us problems later. We have to keep learning and improving ourselves because our environment is constantly changing. </p>
<p><strong>N</strong>: Presumption is when you build castles in the air and then pray to the Lord to finish them for you. Whatever you do, you have got to look at the economics and check against reality. The other day, I was glad to see the report about a very good analyst who went around checking to see the number of people frequenting restaurants and concerts to understand the economy. One has got to check against reality in economic analysis.</p>
<p><strong>R</strong>: I agree with Mr Ngiam. While we have faith, I think we need to do business based on facts. People in the old days might not have had enough facts but today, people have so many facts, statistics, and figures to produce good analysis work. In the early days, people may have relied on gut feelings, which can sometimes be right, or sometimes be wrong. My father did that. But I think today&#8217;s environment for doing business is different. We have to look at demand and supply, consumer behavior, purchasing power, and so on. We need to have the faith but we also need the facts, rather than relying solely on emotions. </p>
<p> <br />
<span class="headblue">What advice would you give to somebody who is completely wiped out this time around?</span></p>
<p><strong>N</strong>: It&#8217;s a very tough question. We hope the economy will grow very strongly. But we have to tighten our belts and not raise our expectations too high. We have got to live within our means so that when bad times come, it will not be so catastrophic. We will then have the resilience to retreat, withdraw, and live to fight another day. </p>
<p><strong>R</strong>: We have to see that we have made a lot of wrong decisions and not blame God or others. But we have to learn and repent of our greed, over-confidence, and stubbornness. This crisis can be a blessing in disguise. It depends on how old you are; if you are in your 20s, you are still so young, it is good that you see the problem in your early age and learn. And for the older businessmen, I would also give a reason to be hopeful; it is a cycle &ndash; there are always ups and downs, and there is no eternal up or down. If you talk about the US economic cycle, it is always between nine to twelve years. So don&#8217;t give up hope and be open, look for more opportunities. I happened to meet someone who had lost a lot of money. He is from the US and he came to Singapore to look for business, to meet potential clients. He said he knows he is almost bankrupt but he has the talent and technology. So I advised him to go ahead and talk to potential clients. After understanding the facts, he can then find partners and convince banks. People think that they must look at the money first but I think you need to look at the opportunities and potential first.<img src="http://www.vantagepoint.com.sg/images/VPlogo.gif" border="0" alt="VantagePoint"> </p>
<p><i>Mr Ngiam Tong Dow has served as Permanent Secretary in the Singapore Prime Minister&#8217;s Office, Ministries of Finance, Trade and Industry, Communications and National Development. He also chaired the Singapore Economic Development Board, Central Provident Fund Board and Housing Development Board; and corporations such as the Development Bank of Singapore and was predecessor of Singapore Technologies Holdings. Currently he is an independent director of Singapore Press Holdings, United Overseas Bank and Yeo Hiap Seng Ltd while running a private consultancy in development economics.</p>
<p>Dr Stephen Riady is President of The Lippo Group of Companies with US$8 billion in assets. Among his many directorships, he is Executive Director of Overseas Union Enterprise Limited and Auric Pacific Group Limited. He graduated from the University of Southern California, and holds a Master&#8217;s Degree of Business Administration from Golden Gate University, USA, an Honorary Degree of Doctor of Business Administration from Napier University, UK, and an Honorary University Fellowship from Hong Kong Baptist University. <br /> <br />
</i></p>
<p>The 5th CEO Forum on <em>Christian CEOs In A Corrupt Environment</em> with Mr Eddy Chieng and Dr Chatree Duangnet will be held on May 23, 2009, at The Fullerton Hotel, Singapore. For more information, please go to <a href="http://www.leadership.com.sg/ECF_Upcoming.html" target="_blank">www.leadership.com.sg/ECF_Upcoming.html.</a></p>
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		<title>The Uncertain Future</title>
		<link>http://vantagepoint.com.sg/2009/03/the-uncertain-future/</link>
		<comments>http://vantagepoint.com.sg/2009/03/the-uncertain-future/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2009 17:02:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>VP</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Features]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spirituality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic downturn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hope]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unknown future]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://vantagepoint.com.sg/?p=139</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How can we get through these uncertain times with certainty? Arulnathan John offers us some practical insights into overcoming the economic downturn.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span class="articleImage"><img src="http://116.12.200.5/EVP/UncertainFuture580.jpg" border="0" alt="The Uncertain Future"></span></p>
<p>Since 2009 began, I have suddenly been humming an old Neil Sedaka song called &#8220;The Hungry Years.&#8221; The singer&#8217;s remembrance of when times were hard yet more meaningful has suddenly become very relevant to me. I have also been reflecting on Jeremiah 29:11 for a word of hope and encouragement. The Lord&#8217;s reminder to Jeremiah of His plans for Israel has never failed to comfort and reassure me during these uneasy times.</p>
<p>I have also started telling my wife more often how much I love her. She was surprised one day when I told her &#8220;I love you&#8221; for what must have been the fifth time in several hours. She smiled when I told her that I did not want to come to a situation where I would regret not having said those words more often.</p>
<p>What have all these got to do with an uncertain future, you ask. I will explain how they are linked later.</p>
<p>The close of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 have hardly been reassuring. Bank collapses, financial losses in investments, retrenchments and rising prices have been added to a painful and terrible litany of wars, earthquakes, natural disasters, and unemployment.</p>
<p>Singapore has not been immune and even national icons like Singapore Airlines and the Development Bank of Singapore are fighting for survival and have to make the hard decision to cut jobs and salaries to stay afloat. Our Government even had to dip into our reserves to help support programs designed to get Singaporeans out of this mess as soon as possible. But even the reassurances sound hollow to some as predictions change with great frequency.</p>
<p>The year 2008 ended with analysts giving assurance that the recession would be over within two years at most. But just two months later, we heard that the recession may last three to five years! Even US President Barack Obama admitted that the economic mess in his country is worse than he originally thought.</p>
<p>Singapore&#8217;s leaders have encouraged us to persevere and not lose hope, reassuring the people that financial help is available to those struck by hard times. They also point to various available schemes for training and retraining unemployed and retrenched workers. But many of those affected find it hard to keep their heads up when the pink slips come in the mail – the kids still need to go to school, and the sole breadwinner still has some months to go before getting a job.</p>
<p>I do not think things will get better soon. The reality is that we may be in for more hard times in the future. Even if we ride out this economic storm, the effects and temptations of high living and high prices, as well as inflation mean the cycle of high-priced property bubbles accompanied by hard financial crashes will continue. And each bubble will likely be bigger than the previous one as businesses try to make up for lost time and earnings – making the eventual crash more painful than all the ones before it.</p>
<p>How can we get through these hard times without losing our sanity or our hope? I pray that these suggestions will help:</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">1. Re-examine all your financial commitments</span> – Do you need a new car if your current one is just fine? What about using public transportation more frequently? Do you have to buy branded foodstuffs when generic or house brands will do just as well?</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">2. Check your electricity and water consumption</span> – Simple things like turning the faucet or shower off when soaping go a long way towards stretching your dollar. Switching off the lights when nobody is in a room helps too.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">3. Be wise in your payments</span> – Where possible, choose to pay in cash instead of credit cards. And stick to just one credit card.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">4. Choose shorter vacations in nearby destinations</span> – Indonesia and Malaysia offer cheaper alternatives to the scenic spots, natural beauty, and cultural diversity we have seen in further destinations. Use low-cost carriers for short trips. Does it really matter if you travel in a slightly less luxurious seat during a two-hour flight?</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">5. Be content with what you already have</span> – Envying the owner of a brand new Mercedes convertible may be misplaced, since you may be unaware of the debt the Mercedes owner is in for the price of his dream car.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">6. If you can fix it, keep it</span> – Buying more disposable items can cost more over the long run than just keeping the item you have in good working condition. You also help save the environment by having less waste.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">7. Have more friends and invest in relationships</span> – Friends, family, and loved ones will really matter during these uncertain times. Money lost can be regained but lost friendships and lost loved ones can stay out of reach forever.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">8. Say &#8220;Thank You&#8221; more often</span> – Being thankful will place you in a better position to understand God&#8217;s will for your life.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">9. Help others</span> – As you help others, others will help you in your time of need. The presence of a helping community will also provide solace and comfort to those badly affected by the economic downturn.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">10. Do not forget the Lord and how He has helped you and your family in the past</span> – Meditating on the words of Jeremiah 29:11 has helped comfort and reassure me in times of trouble. This verse is not the only Bible verse that can help you keep your focus on the Lord, but it is a good start.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">11. Praise the Lord whenever you can</span> – Some of you may be thinking how a retrenched man with a family to feed and bills to pay can praise the Lord. But this has been my personal experience too. Praising and thanking God for all His goodness and mercy and grace to you and your loved ones will help keep your mind off the worry and onto God, the only one who can handle that worry.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">12. Have a more positive outlook</span> – Things may be looking bad now but there is a God who hears our prayers and gives us what we need.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">13. Tell your loved ones how much they mean to you</span> – Saying &#8220;I Love You&#8221; to the ones who matter to you binds all of you closer together and reminds all within a family or community that this is their fight, not just one person&#8217;s battle. Knowing that you love and are loved provides a back-up that is sorely needed as we go through these uncertain times.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">14. Remember that this time will be a forge and anvil on which your character will be tested</span> – Some of your friends will disappear when they learn of your financial woes. Others may be tempted to resort to illegal or unethical ways to get ahead. Do not succumb to such temptations and do not worry about the &#8220;friends&#8221; you have lost. At least you now know who your real friends are.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">15. Pray and seek God</span> – Talking to God helps, and do not be afraid of telling Him how you really feel. He listens to us as we are.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">16. When the good times return, do not forget the lessons learnt from the hard times</span> – Love, companionship, and family ties shine during times of adversity. So the lyrics of &#8220;The Hungry Years&#8221; will always remind me of what really matters – love, laughter, family, and God.</p>
<p><span class="boldblue">17. Take these times as a chance to start life as God wanted you to</span> – It is never too late to change, even if you think your life is in a mess now. What is important is that you take that very first step.</p>
<p>Remember, tough times will not last but tough people will. As King George VI greeted the inhabitants of the British Empire on Christmas Day 1939 – another uncertain year as World War Two loomed – he quoted these famous words and I pray that they may encourage and inspire you too:</p>
<p><em>I said to the man who stood at the Gate of the Year, &#8220;Give me a light that I may tread safely into the unknown.&#8221; And he replied, &#8220;Go out into the darkness, and put your hand into the hand of God. That shall be better than light, and safer than a known way.&#8221;</em><img src="http://www.vantagepoint.com.sg/images/VPlogo.gif" border="0" alt="VantagePoint" /></p>
<p><em>Arulnathan John works for Singapore Press Holdings, and worships at Acts Centre, a daughter congregation under St Andrew&#8217;s Cathedral. He loves to read, go to the movies and the theatre, chat on the Internet and keep his mind open to new experiences.<br />
</em></p>
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